Obviously, when a kind of object has contrary effects ·at different times·, we base our opinions about them purely on our past experience, and always consider as possible any effects that we have observed to follow from this kind of object. And just as past experience regulates our judgments about the possibility of these effects, so it also regulates what we think about their probability; and we always take to be the most likely the effect that has been the most common. So we have two things to think about here: •why we treat the past as a standard for the future, and •how we extract a single judgment from a contrariety of past outcomes.

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