It would be very happy for men in the conduct of their lives and actions if the same ·kinds of· objects were always conjoined, and we had nothing to fear but the mistakes of our own judgment, with no reason to allow for the uncertainty of Nature. But as it is often found that one observation conflicts with another, and that causes and effects don’t follow in the same way that we have experienced in the past, I have to modify my theory so as to take into account this uncertainty, paying attention to the contrariety of outcomes. I start with the question of the nature and causes of this contrariety.

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